Where is Raúl?

Let me share my suspicions about what may be going on in Cuba. For that we must keep in mind Nicolae Ceausescu of former Romania.

It may very well be that Fidel is orchestrating everything backstage as a trial to see the level of acceptance that his coronation of Raúl would have among the military and the top command of the Communist Party. Raúl may be a strong man but that precisely doesn't guarantee popularity. Many in the Cuban military do not forget his role in the kangaroo trial and execution of Gen. Ochoa and Tony de la Guardia both of whom were very popular among the armed forces. They were both purged for their popularity and perhaps as equally important for the fact that they had actual combat experience, had tasted some level of independence abroad and where not members of the original “barbudos”. Stalin did the same with returning veterans of the Spanish Civil War.

All is not honky-dory in the Cuban army, and not all of them are enamored with the state of affairs in Cuba. It is no coincidence that the most serious and responsible organizations and voices of exiles in the US, including the Secretary of Commerce Carlos M. Gutierrez, a Cuban, have called for elements in the military to take advantage of the situation and make a move toward a civic-military government. Would these organizations and a member of the cabinet be making that kind of appeal, one if they didn't think this could be accomplished without bloodshed and civil war, and two, without the knowledge of support from the White House?

A few months ago Raul gave a speech before the armed forces which was essentially Fidel's testament of succession. During that speech Raúl showed up with a bulletproof vest and a very close coterie of his praetorian guard. But perhaps the strongest signal to the armed forces that he meant business was the fact that he showed up also wearing Tony de la Guardia's specially made bulletproof hat. Also recently the Castro brothers have called back from retirement and to active duty in positions of government men in their seventies and eighties, cadres from the old days.

Not all is honky-dory with the Cuban people either. Yes, most Cubans have only known Fidel and they do have a paternalistic and symbolic attachment to the man. But that doesn't mean they are not ready for change. Remember the scenes of mass rallies of flag waving Rumanians during the last days of Nicolae Ceausescu? Since the forced rallies and marches in support of Elián Gonzalez one thing has been noticeable in every mass gathering since, the sea of small Cuban flags covering the faces of the people. But if you have the chance to see between those small flags what you will notice is the largest gathering of bored and fatigued looking people you have ever seen. One day all of a sudden and to the surprise of the Western media the people in the mass rallies of Rumania started booing, jeering and finally running off the stage their beloved leader. Some other day they shot him together with his wife.

Today as we monitored Cuban papers and radio stations what is predominant is a long list of statements of support for Fidel and his decision coming from the various "popular" and government organizations, but no calls or praises for Raul. Which raises the question, where is Raúl? If he is in charge why is he not in front of the cameras assuring the country of its normality?

Together with news on emphasis on the unity of the Cuban people behind Fidel's decision there are also calls to stay very vigilant against plots coming from the US and the "Miami mafia". Cuban relatives of exiles are reporting to their counterparts in Florida of quiet military mobilizations seen in Havana and elsewhere in the island.

Whether Fidel is alive or not and whether this is all true or not, the fact of Raúl's lack of show is stunning, not to mention the lack of a press conference by Fidel’s doctors or a recorded message, etc. We wouldn't be surprised whether Fidel is testing the waters or not, that this event will serve as an occasion to see who is really loyal followed by a purge. We wouldn't be surprised either if in a couple of days or weeks an announcement is made of the discovery of a plot and members of the military are arrested and accused of plotting with the exile community and "los imperialistas yanquis". The total clampdown and assured succession of Raúl would have been accomplished.

Raúl on the other hand could liberalize Cuban economy, provided he survives the transition, as he had said regarding relations with the US that a relationship "of mutual respect" could be possible. Mutual respect for Raúl of course means no interference from Washington or at least a wink and a nod. As controller of the armed forces under whose charge the tourism industry operates the economic future of Raúl is guaranteed. But in the socialist paradise of egalitarian utopias it is Raúl who created and runs the economic apartheid between the Cubans and the lives of splendor that tourists experience.

The real surprise coming from a Stalinist regime of lies and totalitarianism would be that Fidel is really recovering from surgery as they have stated.